Trump Pins Soaring US Gas Prices on Democrats and Ukraine as Midterms Loom

With gasoline prices climbing steadily and midterm elections drawing near, President Donald Trump is attempting to redirect public frustration away from the US-Israel war on Iran and toward two other targets: Democratic-led states and Ukraine's military campaign against Russian oil infrastructure.

In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump argued that the bottleneck in fuel supply is no longer centered on the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. He claimed that record numbers of barrels are now flowing out of the region on an almost daily basis, and instead pointed to refineries as the real problem. According to the president, Russian refineries are being destroyed by Ukrainian strikes while American facilities are being shut down in "Blue States" like California, which he blamed on Democrats.

That narrative, however, diverges sharply from the data. Exports through the Strait of Hormuz have collapsed by 97 percent since the war with Iran began, according to tracking figures, strangling global supplies at a moment when demand remains firm. The near-total disruption of that waterway has been widely cited by energy analysts as a primary driver of the price surge that consumers are now confronting at the pump.

The numbers tell a stark story. The average price for a gallon of gasoline in the United States stands at $4.36, according to the American Automobile Association, which monitors daily fuel prices. That is up from $4.14 a month ago and significantly higher than the $2.98 recorded on February 28, when the US and Israel first launched strikes against Iran. The trajectory represents a roughly 46 percent increase since the conflict began.

Rachel Ziemba, a senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera that multiple crises are feeding into the same problem. She noted that the ongoing conflict with Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, while Middle Eastern flows remain far from normal. In her assessment, the damage to Russian refineries and the risk of additional US sanctions on those processing Russian oil are making matters worse, but the underlying issue continues to be the volatile flows from the Middle East, the difficulty of getting oil products out, and the thin buffers available.

The strain has prompted extraordinary measures from Western allies. On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves amid pressure from the White House. At the same time, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1982, underscoring how aggressively the government has already tapped its emergency stockpile.

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, described the diplomatic pressure campaign in a post on X. He said the US has told some European Union members to release their strategic reserves or face a potential US diesel export ban, pushing France and Germany to act. Oil prices, along with gasoline and diesel futures, moved strongly lower as a result.

Ukraine's campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has added another layer of pressure, particularly on diesel. On Sunday, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence claimed it has disabled more than half of Russia's oil refining capacity. Those strikes are part of a sustained effort that has been underway since Russia's full-scale invasion began in 2022. In June, Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency, which also found that diesel production has fallen 30 percent over the past 18 months.

Trump has also pointed to refinery closures in Democratic-led states, singling out California, where two refineries have shut down over the past year. Those closures reduced the state's refining capacity by 17 percent, creating supply gaps, according to an analysis by S&P Global. While that reduction is real, analysts view it as a secondary factor compared with the global supply shock caused by the Hormuz disruption and sanctions pressures on Russian oil.

The political timing of Trump's messaging is notable. The midterm elections are approaching, and they could reshape the balance of power in Washington. Yet polling suggests the president's effort to shift blame may not be gaining traction. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 65 percent of Americans blamed Trump's policies for higher prices, while 61 percent said the US economy is worse off than when he returned to office.

The convergence of war, sanctions, refinery strikes, and emergency reserve releases has created an unusually volatile energy landscape. Consumers are feeling the effects directly, and the White House is under pressure to demonstrate that it has a strategy to bring costs down. Whether voters accept the president's explanation or hold his administration responsible could play a decisive role in how the midterms unfold.