Middle East Oil Exports Surge Past Pre-War Levels Despite Hormuz Blockade as Analysts Speculate on Secret Iranian Toll

Middle Eastern crude exports have rebounded beyond levels seen before the US-Israel war on Iran erupted in February, even as Tehran continues its attempts to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and strike vessels traversing the critical waterway. Provisional tracking data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler indicates that exports from the region surpassed pre-war volumes on four separate days during the final week of September, climbing to between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Before the conflict began, regional exports averaged roughly 18 million bpd.

The unexpected recovery in oil flows has puzzled analysts, particularly because crude prices have remained stubbornly elevated. Brent crude was trading at approximately $101.59 per barrel on Monday, while US West Texas Intermediate had slipped 1.2 percent. The persistent high prices, combined with rising export volumes, suggest that conventional explanations—such as insurance premiums and market jitters—may not tell the full story.

Michelle Brohard, who leads policy and geopolitical risk analysis at Kpler, offered a provocative alternative theory last week. In an interview with energy analyst Rory Johnston, she suggested that Gulf nations might be making payments to Iran in exchange for safe passage through the strait. "I suspect there is a toll that's being paid, which is giving these ships safe passage," Brohard said. She acknowledged that her assessment remains speculative and has not been independently verified, but pointed to what she described as a race among regional producers to export as much crude as possible before the conflict potentially reignites.

Brohard further speculated that these countries recognize the arrangement is unsustainable—both because of the difficulty of maintaining US naval escorts and because of the steep cost of surrendering a significant share of each cargo's value to Tehran. She estimated that Iran could be extracting anywhere from 10 to 20 percent of the worth of each shipment. The claim echoes earlier reporting from the shipping journal Lloyd's List, which disclosed in March that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had already established what it described as a "toll booth" system to regulate vessel traffic through the strategic chokepoint.

The Trump administration has consistently maintained that Iran will not be allowed to levy any form of transit fee under a prospective agreement with Washington. The closure of the strait has already sent global fuel costs surging and placed immense strain on agricultural sectors worldwide, underscoring the waterway's outsized role in international trade. Before the war, approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Marine tracking data reveals that the recovery in oil flows has been driven largely by two factors: US warships escorting tankers out of the strait, and a sharp increase in ship-to-ship transfers designed to minimize exposure to Iranian missile and drone attacks. Kpler reported that crude exports excluding Iran had recovered to at least 16.5 million bpd as a monthly average in September. The upward trend has carried into October, with Iraq's state-owned Oil Tanker Company announcing on Saturday that it had moved two million barrels of crude aboard a very large crude carrier through the Strait of Hormuz—the company's first such operation in decades, according to its director general.

A significant shift in export logistics has also emerged. According to Kpler, roughly 40 percent of regional crude now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, with most cargoes crossing the waterway only after changing tankers offshore. Much of this rerouted oil flows through pipelines operated by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Supplies transported via the Red Sea have also become an increasingly vital alternative route for exporters seeking to avoid Iranian interference. Notably, Kpler's figures do not account for vessels that may have traversed the strait with their automatic identification system transponders disabled to evade detection.

Iran, however, rejects any suggestion that it has lost its grip on the waterway. Senior IRGC commander Ali Fadavi stated on Sunday that only three to four million bpd were traveling along a US-supervised route, dismissing that volume as "negligible" compared with pre-war traffic levels. Before the conflict began seven months ago, the strait routinely accommodated approximately 125 large commercial vessels daily, including oil tankers, gas carriers, bulk carriers, and container ships.

Oil prices have eased marginally as Middle Eastern exports recover, and the Group of Seven nations recently announced a coordinated release of 100 million barrels from emergency reserves. Yet crude remains substantially more expensive than it was before the war. Analysts attribute the lingering premium partly to elevated insurance rates driven by fears of Iranian attacks, and partly to a market that continues to price in the possibility of a return to full-scale hostilities.

The toll allegations, if substantiated, would carry profound implications for the war's trajectory and the global energy market. Payments to Iran for safe passage would effectively provide Tehran with a steady revenue stream despite sanctions, while also calling into question the durability of US efforts to secure the waterway. For Gulf producers, the calculus appears increasingly urgent: move as much oil as possible now, before the window closes. Whether that urgency stems from a secret financial arrangement with Iran or simply from the logistical realities of a contested maritime corridor remains an open question—one that neither Kpler nor any other independent monitor has yet been able to answer with certainty.