Iran Claims Hormuz Strikes Forced US Navy Pullback as Oil Traffic Rebounds

Iran is asserting that its attacks on shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz — including strikes targeting United States Navy vessels — have succeeded in pushing American warships farther away from the Iranian coastline. The claims, circulated through state-linked media outlets in recent days, mark Tehran's latest effort to portray its maritime campaign as a strategic victory despite ongoing tensions in the vital waterway.

The assertions come amid fresh reporting in US media that eight US Marines sustained smoke inhalation and possible traumatic brain injuries on September 14 after their vessel was targeted by an Iranian antiship cruise missile in the Strait of Hormuz. Officials quoted in those reports indicated that the ship carrying the Marines was not a US Navy vessel. Al Jazeera reached out to US Central Command for comment on the accounts but received no response.

CENTCOM has previously maintained that American vessels successfully evaded Iranian ballistic missile attacks earlier in September. The Pentagon had also quietly updated its casualty figures, adding 29 sailors and eight Marines to its roster of war-wounded personnel. That revision brings the total number of service members injured since the conflict began on February 28 to 861, with at least 19 deaths recorded over the same period.

According to Iranian state-linked media, US warships have withdrawn from prior blockade positions near the Iranian port of Chabahar and the mouth of the Gulf of Oman. Those reports claim the vessels have relocated deeper into the central Arabian Sea, ostensibly to avoid Iranian missile strikes. The purported repositioning, if accurate, would represent a notable shift in the US naval posture in the region.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, appeared to allude to those naval movements in a message published by state media on Monday. He asserted that US forces are now refraining from advancing further "because of the painful blows they have suffered at the hands of the valiant fighters and the guardians of the Strait of Hormuz." Khamenei added that whenever American forces have taken such risks, "they have brought harm upon themselves," and predicted that "soon the Arabian Sea, too, will empty itself of them."

Despite the escalating rhetoric, the United States continues to enforce a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports in some form. Washington has also rejected Tehran's latest proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that the two sides remain far apart on terms for de-escalation. Iranian officials, for their part, say they are prepared for both defensive and offensive military action if circumstances require it.

Analysts suggest that controlled escalation is the most likely trajectory, even if a return to full-scale war is not imminent. Maritime law and security expert Ian Ralby told Al Jazeera that Iran will probably keep targeting ships because the approach has advanced Tehran's objectives throughout the conflict. He pointed to the comparable success of the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen, who have disrupted Red Sea shipping for nearly three years.

Ralby, who also serves as president of the good governance nonprofit Auxilium Worldwide, explained that missile and drone strikes have become a way for weaker military powers to secure significant strategic advantages and rattle global markets. "It is fairly certain, therefore, that whether US personnel are on board or not, attacking ships will continue to be part of Iran's approach to fighting, not only for its continued existence, but for its strategic regional hegemony," he said.

The heated statements from Iranian authorities coincide with a notable increase in energy shipments moving through the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks. While the waterway remains far from its pre-war state of unimpeded transit, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Sunday that nearly 13 million barrels of crude were passing through daily. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a higher estimate of 15 to 22 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million bpd before the war.

Bessent also claimed that Iran has been unable to export its own oil through the blockade, leaving it with only about 15 million barrels already stored at sea that could potentially reach China within two weeks. The contrasting figures illustrate the competing narratives emerging from Washington and Tehran as each side seeks to project strength and control over the strategically critical chokepoint.

Preliminary data released by Kpler on Monday indicated that crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz were expected to average 7.4 million bpd in September. The data and analytics firm reported that 19 tankers transited the strait in the week ending September 27, including 17 very large crude carriers, each capable of hauling two million barrels of oil. Regional exports — encompassing shipments from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iran — rebounded to 12.8 million bpd in September, the highest level since the war began.

Even analysts appearing on Be Vaght-e Iran, a hardline, war-focused Iranian state television program, acknowledged that available evidence pointed to at least seven million barrels of crude passing through the strait daily. They noted that Arab Gulf governments have been employing shuttle systems to move oil out of the region, with US forces providing protection. Because these operations involve state-backed arrangements, the analysts said, they can circumvent reliance on international mechanisms that Iran might otherwise seek to disrupt.

The widening gap between Iran's martial pronouncements and the resumption of significant oil flows underscores the complicated reality of the conflict. Tehran continues to insist that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to vessels that fail to coordinate passage with Iranian authorities, even as tanker traffic climbs. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has maintained this position despite the growing volume of crude moving through the waterway.

The situation leaves mediators scrambling to facilitate additional talks, while Washington signals confidence in its pressure campaign. For now, both sides appear entrenched in their positions — Iran touting its missile strikes as evidence of US retreat, and the US projecting resolve through its blockade and protect-and-escort operations. The coming weeks will test whether the current pattern of controlled escalation holds or whether either side decides to alter its calculus in a way that reshapes the conflict.