Gulf Oil Exports Rebound Despite Escalating Attacks on Tankers in Strait of Hormuz

Oil flows out of the Gulf have staged a striking recovery in recent weeks, even as the security environment around the Strait of Hormuz grows steadily more dangerous. Maritime experts and tracking firms report that exports have climbed back toward pre-war volumes, with Gulf producers, excluding Iran, reaching more than 81 percent of their pre-conflict levels in September. According to the maritime intelligence firm Kpler, crude exports from the broader Middle East even surpassed pre-war levels on 14 separate days during the month.

Before the US-Israel war on Iran erupted on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz was the world's most critical energy chokepoint, handling roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day. Shipments passing through the narrow waterway accounted for approximately 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas supplies. When the conflict began, Iran effectively shut down the strait in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes, while Washington responded by maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports.

Despite that backdrop, the flow of oil has proven surprisingly resilient. Kpler's provisional data shows the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30, compared with an average of about 18 million bpd during the 12 months preceding the war. The independent tracking firm Vortexa estimated separately that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports had climbed to 18.6 million bpd. Oil prices have responded accordingly, with Brent crude, the global benchmark, slipping 0.75 percent to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.2 percent to $88.37 a barrel.

The recovery, however, has been accompanied by a sharp surge in attacks on shipping. At least seven incidents involving tankers were reported in the past week alone, according to the shipping intelligence service Marisks. On October 1, the Kuwaiti-flagged Very Large Crude Carrier MT Kazimah III caught fire after being struck while transiting the strait. Five crew members were safely rescued. Three days later, the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was hit northeast of Oman's Jazirat Umm al-Fayarin, sustaining damage to its engine room, though no casualties were reported.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency has documented at least one attack per day in either the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2. In the Gulf of Aden, Iran-backed Houthi forces have been targeting shipping linked to Saudi Arabia. Threats persisted into Monday, when a tanker entering the Hormuz strait near Oman was hailed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and ordered to turn around or face attack, according to UKMTO. On Tuesday, India's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that 12 crew members aboard a Panama-flagged tanker were injured by an unknown projectile while crossing the strait.

The question of how oil is still moving in such conditions has drawn intense scrutiny. According to analysts, the answer lies in a combination of alternative infrastructure and increasingly creative logistics. Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, told Al Jazeera that two factors explain the rising availability of Middle Eastern crude: Saudi Arabia's effective use of its East-West pipeline, and ship-to-ship transfer operations around the Strait of Hormuz. The East-West pipeline carries oil from fields in eastern Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea in the west, allowing a substantial share of exports to bypass the chokepoint entirely.

Kpler estimates that roughly 40 percent of oil exports now circumvent the strait, while much of the crude that does cross is transferred between tankers offshore. These ship-to-ship transfers frequently involve smaller shuttle boats that turn off their transponders to avoid detection, making the system difficult to monitor and even harder to disrupt. The arrangement reflects both the ingenuity of exporters and the persistent risks they face.

The divergent narratives surrounding the strait have added a political dimension to the crisis. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for the apparent increase in oil flows, asserting that Washington controls the strait and that US forces are successfully protecting vessels passing through Hormuz. Iran has rejected those claims outright, insisting that the volume of oil transiting the waterway is "negligible" and that it retains effective control over the strait.

Shipping companies, meanwhile, are contending with mounting operational costs. Higher freight rates, soaring insurance premiums and the expense of additional security measures are all weighing on the industry, even as the volume of oil moving through the region recovers. Each new attack reinforces the perception of risk and pushes up the price of doing business in one of the world's most important energy corridors.

Whether the current pace of exports can be sustained remains an open question. The combination of Saudi pipeline capacity and offshore transfer operations has kept crude flowing, but both depend on a security environment that is deteriorating rather than stabilizing. With attacks occurring daily and diplomatic tensions showing no sign of easing, the resilience of Gulf oil flows will continue to be tested in the weeks and months ahead.