Ethiopian Forces Seize Mekelle as Tigray Conflict Reignites, Raising Fears of Wider War

Ethiopian federal forces and allied Tigray Peace Force fighters have taken control of Mekelle, the regional capital of Tigray, after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) withdrew from the city. The development, confirmed on Saturday and Sunday by multiple sources including a pro-government militia member, a humanitarian worker, and a Mekelle resident speaking to Reuters, marks a dramatic escalation in the renewed conflict that has shattered a nearly four-year-old peace agreement.

The TPLF acknowledged the withdrawal in a statement issued Saturday, saying its regional administration would temporarily operate from an undisclosed location. The group characterized the move as a tactical decision aimed at preventing further destruction in Mekelle, insisting its forces would continue fighting from other positions. For the federal government, the capture of the city represents a significant strategic and symbolic victory in a conflict that has quickly widened beyond Tigray's borders.

The seizure of Mekelle revives painful memories of the 2020–22 Tigray war, a devastating two-year conflict that killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions, and caused extensive damage to infrastructure and livelihoods. The war ended with the African Union-facilitated Pretoria agreement in November 2022, which was meant to usher in a durable peace. However, key issues—including the status of disputed territories, the return of displaced people, and the disarmament of Tigrayan forces—remained unresolved, laying the groundwork for the current crisis.

In July, the TPLF declared that the Pretoria agreement had effectively collapsed, accusing the federal government of failing to implement its core provisions. Addis Ababa rejected that characterization, maintaining it remained committed to the peace process while accusing the TPLF of undermining the deal. The political dispute was accompanied by growing military tensions, including sporadic clashes and drone strikes in parts of Tigray, with both sides trading accusations over troop movements and preparations for renewed fighting.

The human toll is already being felt. Berihu, a 32-year-old bajaj driver in Shire, northwestern Tigray, described the emotional weight of watching his region return to full-scale war. "I feel very heartbroken knowing that Tigray has gone back to full-scale war," he told Al Jazeera by phone. "We have already seen what the last war did to our people, and now it feels like we are going through it all over again."

Inside Mekelle, residents experienced a chaotic transition. Goitom, 37, recounted a period of uncertainty after TPLF forces left, describing a security vacuum that allowed theft in some areas, including government offices. "On Friday night, we were hearing gunfire but did not know what was happening," he said. By Saturday, federal forces and allied fighters had taken control of key locations, including the airport, according to Goitom. Reuters and The Associated Press also reported that government-aligned forces had entered the city following the TPLF withdrawal. "It feels like we are back to square one," Goitom said. "We have already seen what war can do to this city and to our families. People are worried about what will happen next."

The fear extends far beyond Tigray. In Addis Ababa, residents have been alarmed by explosions heard in several parts of the capital, including near the headquarters of Ethiopia's military. Abel, a 30-year-old shopkeeper, said the fighting had felt distant until the blasts brought it home. "I woke up and heard that my city had been hit," he said. "You hear about fighting in Tigray, and it feels far away. But when you hear about explosions in Addis Ababa, you start asking yourself what will happen next."

Diplomatic sources confirmed the explosions in the capital, while Reuters separately reported that a source linked to an opposition alliance claimed the group had carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa, including against military facilities. The claim could not be independently verified. For Abel, the economic consequences are as concerning as the violence itself. "If the war becomes bigger, ordinary people will suffer," he said.

Bisrat, a college student in Addis Ababa, said the overnight explosions reinforced his fear that Ethiopia could be entering a much wider conflict. "If Ethiopia goes into a full-scale war, ordinary people will suffer," he said. "I fear seeing another Sudan." Sudan has been engulfed in war since April 2023, when fighting broke out between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, displacing millions and creating a major humanitarian crisis.

The current fighting involves a broader set of actors than the Tigray war that ended in 2022. The TPLF is part of a wider opposition alliance that includes armed groups from several parts of the country. Fighting has also spread into the neighboring Afar region, while relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have sharply deteriorated. Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of interfering in Ethiopia's internal affairs and supporting forces opposed to the federal government. Eritrea has rejected the accusations.

On Thursday, Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the closure of its embassy in Asmara and declared 10 Eritrean diplomats persona non grata, saying they had been involved in activities that posed a threat to Ethiopia's national security. Eritrea subsequently announced it was severing diplomatic relations with Ethiopia. The diplomatic rupture has added to concerns that the renewed fighting could acquire a wider regional dimension, drawing in neighboring states and destabilizing the Horn of Africa further.

The capture of Mekelle puts the city once again at the center of the fighting, less than four years after the Pretoria agreement was supposed to have ended the violence. With the TPLF vowing to continue the conflict from other positions, the federal government consolidating control, and a broader opposition alliance reportedly active, the prospects for a swift return to peace appear increasingly remote. Residents in both Tigray and the capital are bracing for what many fear could become another prolonged and devastating war.