Ethiopia's Northern Conflict Widens as Rebel Alliance Battles Federal Forces Across Three Regions

Fighting in northern Ethiopia has intensified almost four years after a peace agreement brought an end to the devastating two-year war in Tigray, with hostilities now spreading into the neighbouring regions of Amhara and Afar. The renewed violence has raised fears of a broader regional conflict, drawing in accusations against foreign powers and threatening critical supply routes.

Government-aligned forces reportedly seized the strategic town of Alamata in southern Tigray on September 28. Located roughly 120 kilometres (75 miles) south of Mekelle, the regional capital, Alamata serves as a vital supply hub for troops, fuel and food near the border with Amhara. According to the conflict monitoring group ACLED, between 15 and 17 drone strikes struck the town on September 22, hitting several schools and a hospital among other targets.

In a significant escalation, Tigrayan forces have pushed eastward into Afar, where they are fighting alongside the Afar armed group known as Ugugumo. Combat has been reported along the Tigray-Afar border and around the towns of Erebti and Abala. This advance carries particular strategic weight because it could threaten the Semera-Djibouti corridor, Ethiopia's primary route for imports, including fuel. Any disruption to this lifeline would have severe consequences for the landlocked nation's economy and military operations.

A separate front has also emerged in western Tigray near the Tekeze River, an area whose ownership is disputed between Tigray and Amhara. Meanwhile, fighting has expanded into northern Amhara, specifically around Kobo and Gidan in the North Wello zone, as well as Sekota in the Wag Hemra zone, which government forces retook on September 27. The multiplicity of active fronts indicates that this is not a single battlefield but rather a multi-pronged conflict spreading across Ethiopia's northern periphery.

The humanitarian impact has been immediate and severe. Telecommunications have been severed across much of Tigray, and commercial flights have been suspended, leaving families separated and humanitarian operations severely hampered. These disruptions compound an already fragile situation in a region still recovering from the previous war.

At the centre of the renewed hostilities is a newly formed coalition of armed and political groups. On September 20, seven organisations announced an alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government and establishing what they describe as an inclusive transitional administration. The coalition calls itself the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, or simply the Alliance for Survival.

The most prominent military force within the alliance is the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which dominated Ethiopian politics for nearly three decades before Abiy assumed office in 2018. The TPLF's fighters launched the latest offensive. War originally broke out between the TPLF and federal forces in November 2020, leading to a two-year conflict that ended with a peace deal.

Other key members include the Amhara Fano National Movement, a coalition of Fano factions that turned against Abiy's government in 2023 after having fought alongside federal forces during the Tigray war. The Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) is also part of the alliance; it has been fighting federal forces in Oromia since 2018, seeking greater self-determination for the Oromo people.

The remaining groups named in the alliance are the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), the Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front (also known as Ugugumo), the Benishangul Peoples' Liberation Movement and the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement. On September 25, the Sidama National Liberation Front announced it would join as well.

However, the alliance's membership remains contested. Jalale Getachew Birru, a senior East Africa analyst at ACLED, noted that the Gumuz Peoples' Democratic Movement has denied joining, stating it has no armed wing. The ONLF is split, with one faction supporting the alliance and another denying any involvement. The OLA has indicated that its primary interest is removing the government rather than participating in coordinated military operations. According to ACLED, only three members—the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and Ugugumo—were actively fighting federal forces as of September 26.

In its founding statement, the alliance accused the government of "dictatorial rule" and said a transitional government would end the country's wars, protect rights and open a national dialogue. The government has not publicly responded to these specific allegations in the source material.

Ethiopia's army chief has accused Eritrea, Sudan's army and Egypt of backing the armed groups, raising fears of a wider regional war. All three countries have denied the allegations, with Egypt adding that it strictly respects the sovereignty of neighbouring states. These accusations underscore the potential for the conflict to draw in external actors, further destabilising the Horn of Africa.

To understand the current crisis, it is important to recognise Ethiopia's complex ethnic and regional makeup. Ethiopia is a landlocked country in the Horn of Africa, bordered by Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia and Djibouti. With approximately 139 million people, it is Africa's second-most populous country after Nigeria. It is also one of the world's most ethnically diverse nations, home to more than 80 distinct groups.

The Oromo are the largest ethnic group, comprising about 35 percent of the population, followed by the Amhara at roughly 24 percent. Other significant groups include Somali at 7 percent, Tigrayan at 6 percent and Sidama at 4 percent. Ethiopia is divided into 12 regional states and two chartered cities, Addis Ababa and Dire Dawa. This federal system, introduced in 1992 and formalised in the 1994 constitution, largely follows ethnic and linguistic divisions—a structure that has both empowered and inflamed regional identities.

The renewed fighting stems from political and territorial tensions left unresolved after the 2020-2022 Tigray war. The TPLF and the federal government remain divided over political control, security arrangements and disputed territory. Tensions have been building for months. According to ACLED, clashes between Tigrayan and federal forces began near the Sudanese border on August 1, followed by federal drone strikes and Tigrayan troop movements.

The current situation represents a dangerous convergence of old rivalries, unresolved territorial disputes and new alliances. With multiple active fronts, a contested rebel coalition, foreign accusations and critical infrastructure at risk, the conflict threatens to undo the fragile peace that ended the previous war. The coming weeks will determine whether Ethiopia descends into another full-scale civil war or finds a path back to negotiation. For now, the fighting continues to spread beyond Tigray, drawing in new regions and raising the stakes for the entire Horn of Africa.