Ethiopia's army vows 'wisdom and restraint' as Tigray war spreads into neighbouring regions

CONTROLLED — ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — The Ethiopian federal military has pledged to answer a widening rebellion in the country's north with restraint, even as the renewed civil war threatens to undo the fragile settlement that ended the 2022 Tigray conflict.

Army Chief of Staff Field Marshal Berhanu Jula, speaking publicly for the first time about the recent escalation, said the army was responding to what he described as provocations from the Tigray front with "wisdom and restraint" — signalling a desire to avoid a full-scale confrontation at a moment when fighting has spread across three regional states.

The conflict has moved well beyond Tigray since seven armed groups announced an alliance, the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, whose stated aim is the removal of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. Since the alliance was unveiled, battles have spread into the neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions, turning what began as a renewed Tigray confrontation into a multi-front national crisis.

In his remarks, Jula accused Eritrea of financing and backing the armed groups in order to weaken Ethiopia. He described the "Semedo" alliance as the latest extension of a long-running pattern of hostile alliances that, in his view, cannot take on the Ethiopian state without external support. Eritrea has denied the allegations, and is understood to be wary that landlocked Ethiopia may ultimately seek a route to the Red Sea through Eritrean territory.

On the ground in Afar, the most recent engagements have centred on the town of Abala, where government troops have been attempting to stop rebel forces from taking the area. Fighting has also continued near Sama, Soqota and Raya Alamata, with government forces reportedly narrowing their grip on the town of Alamata.

The army has been more aggressive elsewhere. In North Wollo, an Amhara zone bordering Tigray, military commanders said on Thursday that a counter-offensive had killed 272 Tigrayan fighters and wounded 260 more, describing the episode as heavy losses for the Tigray People's Liberation Front. Those figures come from government accounts, and the rebel side has presented a markedly different description of who is on the offensive.

The TPLF's Tigray Army has said the federal government launched a "full-scale offensive" using infantry, mechanised units and drones. Abdisalam Balema, a member of the TPLF's central committee, described the situation to Al Jazeera as a "full war" — a characterisation far removed from the army's language of restraint.

Tension between the two narratives is matched by a widening gap on the ground. Civilians across the north have reportedly faced rolling internet blackouts, with access cut across northern Ethiopia on Friday — a day after the UN said it was alarmed by reports of drones being used against civilians. Al Jazeera has also reported young men fleeing Tigray amid fears of forced recruitment, alongside growing concerns about blockades and power shortages in affected zones.

The fighting is putting severe strain on the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, which ended a brutal two-year civil war in Tigray but left key political, territorial and security disputes unresolved — a vacuum the TPLF has used to regroup and reposition. The renewed escalation comes only weeks after Washington lifted sanctions on Ethiopia and Eritrea that were tied to atrocities committed during the previous war, declaring that the "national emergency … has expired."

Analysts warn the current offensive represents the most serious challenge yet to that agreement, raising the possibility of a wider regional war that could pull in armed groups from across Ethiopia and further destabilise the Horn of Africa, already burdened by the conflict in neighbouring Sudan.

Addressing the UN General Assembly, Ethiopia's president attempted to cast Addis Ababa as a pillar of regional stability, accusing unnamed external actors of interfering in the country's affairs while pointing to Ethiopia's role in supporting peace efforts in Sudan. The diplomatic framing contrasts sharply with the military escalation unfolding a short distance from the capital's own borders.

Alemayehu Weldemariam, a professor of law at Indiana University, told Al Jazeera that the federal government bears much of the responsibility for the collapse of the Pretoria settlement. "This war has been in the making for a while now," he said, arguing that many provisions of the 2022 cessation of hostilities were sabotaged by Addis Ababa itself — pointing to restrictions on fuel, services and cash flowing into Tigray, and to the government's failure to establish the interim administration the deal promised.

"What was supposed to be an interim arrangement turned out to be permanent," Weldemariam said, noting that Tigray has been excluded from national elections since.

With the army publicly favouring a strategy of "strategic calm" over large-scale confrontation, and insisting the Tigray front's popular support is waning and its leadership divided, the coming days will test whether restraint can be squared with the rebel side's account of an all-out government offensive.