Ethiopia Accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of Arming Rebels as Fears of Regional War Mount

Ethiopia's military leadership has publicly accused three neighboring countries of supporting armed opposition groups within its territory, a charge that has intensified concerns about the potential for the country's internal conflict to draw in regional powers.

Over the weekend, Ethiopian army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula pointed the finger at what he described as the country's "historical and contemporary adversaries," naming Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt as actors backing armed groups fighting against the federal government. He specifically characterized Eritrea as the intermediary connecting those external powers with militant organizations operating inside Ethiopia.

The accusations arrive as renewed fighting spreads across northern Ethiopia, particularly in the Tigray region and into the neighboring Amhara and Afar areas, raising the specter of a broader regional confrontation.

All three accused nations have firmly rejected the allegations. Egyptian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nader Zaki told Al Jazeera that Cairo's foreign policy rests on "full respect for the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of states, and noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries." He further stated that Egypt is committed to international law and the United Nations Charter and opposes any actions that could destabilize regional security.

Major-General Samir Farag, former head of the Egyptian Armed Forces' Morale Affairs Department, echoed that denial, telling Al Jazeera that the accusations are false and that interfering in the domestic affairs of regional states has never been part of Egypt's policy.

Sudan's military likewise dismissed the claims as "baseless" and countered with its own allegation that Ethiopia has been supporting the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which has been battling the Sudanese Armed Forces since 2023. Addis Ababa has denied that charge.

The latest dispute is layered atop a series of long-standing grievances that have already strained Ethiopia's relationships with each of the accused countries. Cairo and Addis Ababa have been locked in a prolonged dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a massive hydropower project on the Blue Nile that Egypt fears could reduce its critical water supply. That disagreement, unresolved since construction began, has increasingly spilled into broader competition over regional security, the Red Sea and influence in the Horn of Africa.

Relations between Ethiopia and Sudan have similarly deteriorated. Since the outbreak of Sudan's civil war, Khartoum has accused Addis Ababa of providing training, supplies and territory to the RSF. Meanwhile, Eritrea — which fought alongside Ethiopian forces against Tigrayan rebels during the 2020-2022 war — has seen its relationship with Ethiopia sour in the years since, particularly over Ethiopia's efforts to secure access to the Red Sea.

Against this backdrop, some analysts and Ethiopian opposition figures contend that Addis Ababa is invoking foreign conspiracies to galvanize public support behind its national army at a time of domestic vulnerability. Mohamed Selim, deputy chair of the Egyptian parliament's African Affairs Committee, told Al Jazeera that the accusations appear designed to divert attention from Ethiopia's internal problems by manufacturing an external enemy and unifying the home front.

Amani al-Tawil, director of the Africa Programme at the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, offered a similar assessment, describing the allegations as "an understandable attempt to escape from internal crises." She questioned the logic of Egypt choosing this particular moment to intervene militarily in Ethiopia, given that the two countries have been at odds over the dam since 2011.

Al-Tawil also highlighted the significance of a newly formed opposition coalition in Ethiopia, comprising seven groups that represent a range of ethnic communities and regions. The alliance, announced last week, presents a substantial challenge to Addis Ababa's authority, she noted.

The geographic scope of the renewed fighting is a major source of anxiety. Mohammed Hussein, chairman of the Prosperity Party's Afar Region Branch Office — the ruling party in that region — told Al Jazeera that Tigray, Amhara and Afar together contain more than 38 million people, according to his estimate, and include territory near the borders with Djibouti and Eritrea. That proximity, he suggested, heightens the danger of a wider regional war.

Ammar Arki, a writer who focuses on Horn of Africa affairs, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia has at various points blamed Sudan, Egypt and Eritrea for stoking instability inside the country. He said the most recent accusations could be read as an effort to redirect domestic attention toward an external threat and to consolidate support around the federal government.

But Arki cautioned that the longer Addis Ababa frames its internal crisis as the product of an "external conspiracy" — especially if neighboring states adopt the same narrative in response — the greater the likelihood that Ethiopia's conflict will cross its borders and become a regional war.

The escalating rhetoric and the spread of fighting across multiple northern regions have left diplomats and regional observers watching closely for signs that the conflict could pull in neighboring states, whether through direct involvement or through proxy dynamics. With each side trading accusations of destabilization, the space for de-escalation appears to be narrowing, and the humanitarian and security consequences of a wider war would likely be severe for a region already grappling with multiple overlapping crises.