Can Yemen’s government win over the tribes in its battle against the Houthis?

The Yemeni government’s newly launched offensive against the Houthis is putting more than battlefield strategy to the test: it is also probing whether powerful tribes living under Houthi rule can be persuaded that the tide of the decade-long war is finally turning.

For years, tribes hostile to or deeply wary of the Iran-backed movement have largely avoided open confrontation, held back by the group’s military strength and the memory of earlier uprisings that ended in failure. Now, analysts say, those communities are watching the internationally recognised government’s recently activated fronts — primarily along the Red Sea coast and in the northern provinces of Marib and al-Jawf — for proof that early advances can be sustained rather than fizzling out.

The Saudi Arabia-backed offensive comes in direct response to a string of major Houthi gains in September, when the armed group, also known as Ansar Allah, or Supporters of God, swept across much of the country’s Red Sea coastline. During that push, the Houthis seized key trade corridors, including the port city of Mocha and surrounding territory near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes.

Airstrikes have since exacted a toll on Houthi positions in recent days, but military experts caution that pressing deeper into territory the group has held since the conflict began in 2014 — including the capital Sanaa, the northern stronghold of Saada, and Amran — would be an enormous undertaking.

The government has raised the stakes by declaring an all-out war and vowing to retake Sanaa outright. Such a sweeping pledge, observers suggest, could erode long-standing tribal distrust of the state and encourage communities to shift allegiance at a carefully chosen moment. The stakes are high: without tribal participation, the government’s capacity to advance into Houthi-held areas could be severely limited.

A significant show of support emerged on Monday in Marib governorate, the government’s northern redoubt, where a large gathering of tribal sheikhs and local anti-Houthi fighters assembled. Members of tribes including the Jadan of Marib and the Nihm of Sanaa, alongside other allied groups, attended the rally, which declared a general mobilisation in support of the armed forces to “restore the state and topple the Houthi coup”.

Adel Dashela, a researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies, said the impact of that declaration will depend on whether it converts into boots on the ground. If pledges of allegiance translate into real mobilisation and continued participation in combat, he argued, tribal forces could help government troops push toward Houthi-controlled areas and ultimately the Houthi heartland, including Sanaa.

Across a decade of war, Yemen’s tribes have repeatedly risen against the Houthis at a local level, yet deep internal divisions and the absence of consistent outside backing have repeatedly blocked the emergence of a unified tribal front. Even so, the communities remain potentially the single most important source of both manpower and local influence for the government.

Dashela stressed, however, that tribal fighters must be integrated into formalised state and coalition command structures rather than deployed as an independent vanguard if they are to be effective in any future campaign.

Abdulsalam Mohammed, chairman of the Yemeni Abaad Studies and Research Center, described a pattern of calculation rather than enthusiasm. Yemeni tribes, he said, are unwilling to risk confronting Houthi forces without guarantees of support and typically “wait for the right time” before committing. Their priority, he explained, is to identify a state capable of protecting them; once that state proves reliable, an alliance becomes possible.

Mohammed pointed to painful precedent. Tribes that previously rebelled against the Houthis, he noted, were effectively crushed because the government was absent when it mattered most. In January 2019, fighting erupted between the Houthis and the Hajoor tribe in the northwest province of Hajjah, lasting several weeks before the group captured Hajoor areas in March of that year. Saudi Arabia responded by airdropping food, medical supplies and weapons to the besieged fighters — assistance that ultimately failed to prevent their defeat.

Even in areas where the Houthis enjoy local backing, Mohammed suggested, loyalties are not necessarily fixed. Some tribes could drift gradually toward the government if they conclude that doing so serves their interests, he said, adding that the ranks of tribes fighting for the Houthis are far from uniformly ideological. Their motivations, he explained, range from pragmatism and material necessity to genuine belief.

The government faces another formidable obstacle in the Houthis’ systematic dismantling of traditional tribal authority over recent years. The group has co-opted some leaders, replaced others with loyalists, and weathered armed challenges from tribes as well as sustained conflict with the Yemeni government and Saudi Arabia, alongside bombing campaigns conducted by the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel.

A northern Yemeni tribal sheikh, speaking on condition of anonymity for security reasons, told Al Jazeera that the Houthis’ military “supremacy” across the long war has left a deep impression. That perception of near-invincibility, analysts warn, will only change if the government can demonstrate durable gains — and prove, at last, that it can stand beside the tribes when the fighting turns against them.